Richard Fifer Web, Please find this full article on goldstockmania.com
Website: http://www.petaquilla.com Symbol: TSX: PTQ | US routing symbol:PTQMF
Here is a junior Canadian mining stock flying completely under the radar that has already produced over 26,000 ounces of gold and recently announced that it has reached the status of commercial gold production. That’s right, Petaquilla Minerals is a now a junior gold producer, operating its gold processing plant at its 100% owned Molejon Gold Project in Panama. Anticipated throughput for the project during the first year of commercial production is estimated to be 2200 tonnes per day. Commercial production commenced January 8th, 2010, with annual gold production targeted at 100,000 oz/yr at a cost of $550 per ounce. The Molejon mine site is located in the south central area of the Company’s 100% owned 842-square kilometer concession lands, a region known historically for gold content. With a target share price of $3.97, Petaquilla is quickly becoming one of my top Canadian gold stocks.
Opportunity($):
Current Share Price: $0.50 | Target Share Price: $3.97 | Share Price Increase: ~7.93x
With 121 M shares outstanding and a share price of US $.50/share, Petaquilla Minerals is shaping up to be one undervalued junior gold stock. A gold producer priced at only $0.50 cents/share in my mind is definitely worth taking a hard look at. I have followed this company for quite some time and did not feel comfortable with getting on board with them in the past for a lot of reasons. The main problem was their past management, which did not have such a great track record for getting things done, especially on time. For a long time it seemed that Petaquilla was just a very poorly managed junior mining company. There were also other issues that introduced too much risk for me, such as the politics of starting up the first mine in Panama in modern times. There were issues with obtaining the necessary permits as well as environmental issues/opposition that needed to be dealt with too. So off and on I kept an eye on Petaquilla to see if they would resolve some of these issues or not.
It is good to be patient when you are in the world of junior mining stocks. Take your time and wait for the opportunities to meet your requirements. Some penny mining stocks can begin as real ugly ducklings and eventually turn into beautiful swans. However, many of them unfortunately will not turn into anything at all. Petaquilla lost a lot of trust over course of 2007-2008 with delay after delay, a quickly dropping stock price, and a lost of confidence in their then CEO Richard Fifer. Richard Fifer was surrounded in controversy which I believe made many investors uncomfortable and head for the exits. However in 2009, Petaquilla started to turn the corner. There were many positive changes that really removed a ton of risk for this junior gold stock. After reviewing the events of 2009 and early 2010, Petaquilla now meets the requirements for my hot penny stock picks list. Let’s take a moment and review some key events that were instrumental in Petaquilla’s magnificent turn around.
Key 2009/2010 events that now make Petaquilla an attractive play:
· 04/07/2009: After many delays, Petaquilla finally makes its first gold pour.
· 11/05/2009: President/CEO and majority of board members resign.
· 11/06/2009: New Board members announced (New business/financial guys added to board).
· 11/06/2009: Joao Manuel appointed as President/CEO.
· 11/18/2009: Panamanian Government authorizes commercial production.
· 12/14/2009: Discovery of significant gold mineralization on its Oro Del Norte concession.
· 01/08/2010: Commercial production commences at 70% capacity.
· 01/29/2010: Producing 6,000 ounces of gold per month.
· 03/04/2010: Commences exploration drilling program Oro del Norte concession.
· 04/13/2010: $70 million debt elimination – converted to gold shipments (91.7K oz over 5 years).
Petaquilla is a Canadian mining stock in position for its share price to move substantially higher over the next 6 months if they continue to execute well. They are already producing gold (produced over 26,000 oz of gold!) and has a 1.1 MOz+ NI43-101 compliant gold resource and counting! Resource expansion in on going and could add much more upside to this company by the end of 2010. Petaquilla has been relieved of about $70 M dollars in debt which had a very high maintenance cost and drag on earnings. Elimination of this debt will dramatically improve their bottom line. At an average gold price of $1150/oz, cost per oz of $550, and a standard valuation of 8x earnings, I am targeting a share price $3.97/share. This is about 7.93x the current share price! With this kind of profit potential, Petaquilla certainly looks like pretty good play.
Strengths:
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Status-
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New gold producer-has already produced 26,000 oz of gold to date, projecting 100,000 oz/yr starting at a cost $550/oz.
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People-
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Recent management shakeup has been very positive for the company.
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Property-
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100%-owned Molejon mine has a total 1.1 Moz+ of gold (NI 43-101 Complaint), about a 10 yr mine life.
Oro Del Norte concession could have 2-3 times mine life of Molejon.
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Share Ownership-
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Institutional Ownership – Peninsula Merchants Syndications Corp. 18 M shares, Insider Ownership- Unknown.
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Financials-
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Just converted $70 M of debt to gold payments over 5 years.Financial risk pretty much eliminated.
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Recommended by-
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-Andrew Mickey, Canaccord Adams, Carmel Daniele
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Promotion-
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-Oro Del Norte concession drilling program likely to turn up a substantial gold resource.
-Announcement when they have reached near 100% capacity and reduce cost/oz.
-Increasing mill throughput from 2200 tpd to 5000 tpd
-Bumping up annual production to 150K oz/yr .
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Push/Time Frame-
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Share prices should substantially move upward after 2-3 quarters of solid gold production. Also, good Oro Del Norte drill results could put a nice pop in the share price.
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Weaknesses/Threats:
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Minor Weakness-
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Past negative history haunts Petaquilla and will need to be overcome with consistent results.
Petaquilla also needs to improve investor relations and be more forthcoming on company updates.
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Medium Weakness-
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None.
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Major Weakness-
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None.
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Trading Strategy:
Strategy: A trader doing an analysis on Petaquilla Minerals would conclude that the majority of the risk that use to make this junior gold stock to risky to bother with has been eliminated. And after reviewing the past events since Nov 2009, he/she can see that the new management has been extremely effective in such a short amount of time. Also, the trader would reason that the stock price was over $3.00 in 2007 before Petaquilla had mining approval, started commercial production, eliminated their troublesome debt, improved their managment, started producing 6K ounces of gold per month. Now with all that accomplished coupled with the likely possibility of significant resource expansion and minimum downside risk, the trader sees a current share price of .50 cents as an incredible value play!
Furthermore, the trader understands that there are typically there 3 times to enter a junior mining trade, 1) before a significant discovery is announced, 2) before production is announced, or 3) after production starts. If you enter after production starts, then you typically want to wait until the price comes down because of start up issues which could range from equipment failure, poor efficiency, low throughput, low ore grades, etc. The stock price tends to rebound after the issues are corrected.
Petaquilla Highlights Financial and Operating Performance

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Apr 27, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) — Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (“Petaquilla” or the “Company”)(CA:PTQ 0.51, -0.08, -13.56%)(PTQM.F 0.52, -0.08, -12.69%)(FRANKFURT: P7Z) announces its gold production in Q3 2010 increased by 3,274 ounces or 31% over Q2 2010. As a result of this production increase, together with reductions in operating costs, cash costs were reduced to US$637 per ounce on a by-product basis, down 33.6% from US$960 per ounce in Q2 2010. Gross margin from the sale of gold in Q3 2010 amounted to $4.7 million.
Similarly, in line with the above performance, administrative and other expenses for the nine months ended February 2010 were reduced by US$3.6 million or 26% to US$10.3 million compared to US$13.9 million for the nine months ended February 2009.
The Company is also pleased to announce that it has poured approximately 6,500 ounces of gold during the initial four pours of the current month of April and, as a result, is targeting cash costs in the mid-US$500 per ounce range for the month.
In addition to the recurrent gold production process operation and for the second phase of the Company’s heap leach project, Petaquilla initiated the construction of an on-site test facility to determine the recoverability of the different ore types and particle sizes for the planned heap leach operation expected to commence during the first calendar quarter of 2011. The Company anticipates the heap leach operation will generate an additional 50,000 ounces of gold annually.
Simultaneously, the Company advanced its exploration work at its 100% Oro del Norte concession, moving from initial superficial rock chipping and sampling activities, as disclosed in the Company’s news release of December 14, 2009, to a trenching and drilling program with a professional crew working onsite since early March. The Company will provide regular updates on the respective results.
About Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. – Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. is a gold producer operating its gold processing plant at its 100% owned Molejon Gold Project in Panama. Anticipated throughput for the project during the first year of commercial production is estimated to be 2200 tonnes per day. Commercial production commenced January 8, 2010. The Molejon mine site is located in the south central area of the Company’s 100% owned 842-square kilometre concession lands, a region known historically for gold content.
On behalf of the Board of Directors of PETAQUILLA MINERALS LTD.